You only have to look at the Russians’ appalling behaviour in the wake of the attack on the Nova Kakhovka dam to see they have nothing but contempt for the plight of ordinary Ukrainian citizens. Not content with the fact that thousands of Ukrainian families were forced to flee their homes in the face of rising flood waters, Russian soldiers compounded their utter disregard for civilians by trying to steal the boats that could have been used to take them to safety.
From the commencement of hostilities last year, the Russians have had no qualms about attacking Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, whether it involves bombing the country’s energy supplies or residential neighbourhoods. But its actions in recent days have taken its criminality to a new low – one that will add to the mounting pressure for Vladimir Putin and his acolytes to stand trial for war crimes.
It should also persuade Western leaders to overcome any feelings of squeamishness they might have about Ukraine extending its military campaign into Russian territory.
Indeed, as Kyiv’s long anticipated offensive gains momentum, there have been several reports of attacks deep within Russian territory, such as the recent incursion on a well-to-do Moscow suburb or the bombing of oil dumps and airfields. There have also been a number of border raids involving members of the Russian Volunteer Group, a militia composed of Russian partisans said to be sympathetic to Ukraine. In their most recent operation at the weekend in southern Russia, the militia claimed to have succeeded in capturing Russian soldiers.
Previously the government in Kyiv had been persuaded, due to Western reservations, to confine its military operations to liberating territory in the east and south of the country occupied by the Russians. The Biden administration, in particular, had expressed concern that Ukrainian attacks against Russian positions could lead to a major escalation in the conflict. This caused Washington to limit the amount and type of weapons supplies it was prepared to supply to Kyiv.
But with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, keen to utilise the new Western-equipped fighting brigades that have been trained in preparation for the counter-offensive, the Ukrainians are indicating they are no longer willing to accept the West’s arbitrary constraints, and are perfectly willing to attack Russian positions when necessary.
If, as Western leaders repeatedly claim, they want the Ukrainians to emerge victorious, then they should overcome their misgivings and allow Kyiv to do so.
This is not to say that the Ukrainians should be given carte blanche to attack civilian targets within Russia – for that would reduce Kyiv to the same level of moral bankruptcy as the Kremlin, and would lead to a dramatic decline in support for Ukraine’s war effort. But there are a number of perfectly legitimate military targets that they can strike within Russian territory, such as army bases, ammunition dumps and transportation networks, the degradation of which would reduce Moscow’s ability to continue fighting. Attacking such targets is not only justified: it is crucial if Kyiv is to achieve its ultimate objective of inflicting a catastrophic defeat against their Russian adversaries.
Nor is it unrealistic for the Ukrainians to think in such terms. General David Petraeus, who commanded coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan before becoming CIA director, believes there is a strong possibility that the Russian forces will simply collapse when confronted by the type of highly effective combined arms operations the Ukrainians are likely to employ during their offensive.
“I believe the Russian forces are going to crumble,” the retired general said during a visit to Kyiv earlier this month. While the Ukrainians have undergone rigorous training and are now equipped with superior Western tanks and other high-grade weaponry, he believes the Russian forces lack motivation and morale. “This counteroffensive is going to attack Russian forces that are significantly depleted,” Petraeus predicted. “They’ve taken very heavy losses. They’ve been in combat in many cases for a year or more… They’re not well-disciplined or well-led.”
The inherent weakness of the Russian military’s defensive positions can be seen from its unimpressive performance in trying to hold the hotly contested city of Bakhmut, with Yevgeny Prigozhin denouncing the Russian military a “disgrace” after Ukraine’s troops were able to push back Russian lines and seize Berkhivka, a town in the northern suburbs of the embattled city.
In such circumstances it is entirely conceivable that Ukraine can achieve a comprehensive victory over Russia, one that would have long-term benefits for European security. A Russian defeat would not only signal the end of Putin’s despotic rule in Moscow – it would send a clear message to other authoritarian regimes like China and Iran that democratic countries are prepared to fight for their freedoms, and win.
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