From a friend scientist and former wake forest researcher
2: The Virus “Science” STILL Does Not Care What We Believe SO be Prepared (to HOPE).
I wrote a post on Facebook a week ago “The Virus Science Does Not Care What We Believe SO be Prepared (to LOVE)” and I was so incredibly blessed by your responses, outpouring of love, and sharing. Because I care so much about all of you, I wanted to give you an update on COVID-19 since that post. As I said, I teach my doctoral students that “Science doesn’t care what we believe, it only respects the data.” At the time I said “we don’t yet know how many people in the US currently have the virus. If it were to be only 100,000 people, our social distancing policies would have a great chance of blunting the growth curve, and all those folks who don’t believe it will be a big deal might be right.” Well we are way past that. Yesterday, we exceeded 100,000 cases in the USA alone and the virus is in exponential growth which means that the cases will double every three days. If this growth rate continues, that would mean that we would have almost a half a million people by the time I write an update next weekend. As the numbers grow each day, the statistics in the US have surpassed every other country in the world. I was on a phone call with one of the leading virologists in the world this week, and he emphasized the virus is everywhere no matter what the numbers (limited by not having enough tests) say.
As a dear friend and scientist, I want to reemphasize several important facts. First, this is not the common flu. It is more contagious than the common flu by approximately 2.5 times, and much more lethal. It has a hospitalization rate of 10 to 20% compared to 1 to 2% for the common flu. It has a fatality rate in Italy and Spain of 7 to 10%. That is at least 500 times greater than the common flu. As I said before, it is especially deadly (almost by 10 times) to the elderly and people with preexisting conditions (age greater than 70, heart disease, lung disease, cancer). If you are hospitalized, you are 10 times more likely to die from the disease without a ventilator so that’s why the issue of ventilators has been in front of the news.
Once again, we must accept the science, stop the bickering, conspiracies and come together as the beautiful, powerful nation that we are and always have been. To slow this virus will require a level of dedication to protecting each other by social distancing unthinkable under any other circumstance. I love you all and I urge you to social distance to protect yourself but especially the precious elderly and folks with preexisting conditions.
I know all this sounds very scary but please know that my intention to not to scare you, but to help provide you reliable information that allows you to keep yourself and those you love safe. Most importantly, we must be prepared (and you will again to be surprised by what I say) to HOPE. As I said in the last post, our primitive instinct to control what is dangerous has the capacity to produce great fear and anxiety, and I am certain many of you are feeling it. I know many of you have lost your jobs. I’m so sorry.
As bad as this is, we will get through this…or as my mom used to say “this too will pass.” I base my hope on four key principles. First, my mom, she was NEVER wrong and so I don’t anticipate she will be wrong this time.
Second, our economy will be able to overcome this if we simply give it time. Global health expert and Microsoft founder Bill Gates made an outstanding point the other night that if we would simply but extensively social distance for six weeks, the virus would lose its capacity to be transferred, cases would be dramatically reduced, and we could begin to build again. We are an extraordinary, entrepreneurial and diverse people and as we did in other critical times (the Civil War, the Great Depression, World War II, 9/11), we have shown unbelievable resilience and have come back stronger each time.
Third as a scientist, I have great confidence in my field and all of our sophisticated tools and supercomputers... We are the best in the world at what we do and that’s why young scientists from all over the world come to train here. I believe we will find an already existing drug or newly develop a drug and/or vaccine that will stop this virus. At this point, the reign of COVID-19 will be over.
Finally, and most importantly, we must be prepared to HOPE based on our faith. One of my favorite Bible verses is Hebrews 11:1 “Now faith is confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see” I have confidence in what we hope for and I especially have confidence in the God we serve to bring about what we hope for.
As I said in the last post, In the next few weeks, you are going to see the very worst and best in humanity, and I implore you to be on the side of good and HOPE. At the current moment, one of the few things that is more of a threat than COVID-19 is a loss of HOPE resulting in fear, anxiety, and depression. In the long run, fear, anxiety and depression will kill tens of millions of more people than COVID-19. Keep HOPE, God bless you, and I love you.
2: The Virus “Science” STILL Does Not Care What We Believe SO be Prepared (to HOPE).
I wrote a post on Facebook a week ago “The Virus Science Does Not Care What We Believe SO be Prepared (to LOVE)” and I was so incredibly blessed by your responses, outpouring of love, and sharing. Because I care so much about all of you, I wanted to give you an update on COVID-19 since that post. As I said, I teach my doctoral students that “Science doesn’t care what we believe, it only respects the data.” At the time I said “we don’t yet know how many people in the US currently have the virus. If it were to be only 100,000 people, our social distancing policies would have a great chance of blunting the growth curve, and all those folks who don’t believe it will be a big deal might be right.” Well we are way past that. Yesterday, we exceeded 100,000 cases in the USA alone and the virus is in exponential growth which means that the cases will double every three days. If this growth rate continues, that would mean that we would have almost a half a million people by the time I write an update next weekend. As the numbers grow each day, the statistics in the US have surpassed every other country in the world. I was on a phone call with one of the leading virologists in the world this week, and he emphasized the virus is everywhere no matter what the numbers (limited by not having enough tests) say.
As a dear friend and scientist, I want to reemphasize several important facts. First, this is not the common flu. It is more contagious than the common flu by approximately 2.5 times, and much more lethal. It has a hospitalization rate of 10 to 20% compared to 1 to 2% for the common flu. It has a fatality rate in Italy and Spain of 7 to 10%. That is at least 500 times greater than the common flu. As I said before, it is especially deadly (almost by 10 times) to the elderly and people with preexisting conditions (age greater than 70, heart disease, lung disease, cancer). If you are hospitalized, you are 10 times more likely to die from the disease without a ventilator so that’s why the issue of ventilators has been in front of the news.
Once again, we must accept the science, stop the bickering, conspiracies and come together as the beautiful, powerful nation that we are and always have been. To slow this virus will require a level of dedication to protecting each other by social distancing unthinkable under any other circumstance. I love you all and I urge you to social distance to protect yourself but especially the precious elderly and folks with preexisting conditions.
I know all this sounds very scary but please know that my intention to not to scare you, but to help provide you reliable information that allows you to keep yourself and those you love safe. Most importantly, we must be prepared (and you will again to be surprised by what I say) to HOPE. As I said in the last post, our primitive instinct to control what is dangerous has the capacity to produce great fear and anxiety, and I am certain many of you are feeling it. I know many of you have lost your jobs. I’m so sorry.
As bad as this is, we will get through this…or as my mom used to say “this too will pass.” I base my hope on four key principles. First, my mom, she was NEVER wrong and so I don’t anticipate she will be wrong this time.
Second, our economy will be able to overcome this if we simply give it time. Global health expert and Microsoft founder Bill Gates made an outstanding point the other night that if we would simply but extensively social distance for six weeks, the virus would lose its capacity to be transferred, cases would be dramatically reduced, and we could begin to build again. We are an extraordinary, entrepreneurial and diverse people and as we did in other critical times (the Civil War, the Great Depression, World War II, 9/11), we have shown unbelievable resilience and have come back stronger each time.
Third as a scientist, I have great confidence in my field and all of our sophisticated tools and supercomputers... We are the best in the world at what we do and that’s why young scientists from all over the world come to train here. I believe we will find an already existing drug or newly develop a drug and/or vaccine that will stop this virus. At this point, the reign of COVID-19 will be over.
Finally, and most importantly, we must be prepared to HOPE based on our faith. One of my favorite Bible verses is Hebrews 11:1 “Now faith is confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see” I have confidence in what we hope for and I especially have confidence in the God we serve to bring about what we hope for.
As I said in the last post, In the next few weeks, you are going to see the very worst and best in humanity, and I implore you to be on the side of good and HOPE. At the current moment, one of the few things that is more of a threat than COVID-19 is a loss of HOPE resulting in fear, anxiety, and depression. In the long run, fear, anxiety and depression will kill tens of millions of more people than COVID-19. Keep HOPE, God bless you, and I love you.
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